Climate change and political instability in West Africa: understanding the links between environment, media and local governance

by Belélé Jérôme William Bationo

PhD Candidate in Climate Change and Sustainability | Expert in Media and Development

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In West Africa, and particularly in the Sahel region, climate change is no longer just an environmental issue; it has also become a significant contributor to political instability. Disruptions to the climate are exacerbating existing social and political tensions, particularly in fragile areas such as Burkina Faso, Mali, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau and Niger. As field analysts working at the intersection of media, the environment and governance, we have observed how these dynamics intertwine and reinforce each other. This article provides an analysis of these interactions, emphasising the pivotal role of the media in shaping perceptions of risk and political legitimacy.

The climate-conflict-governance triangle

The relationship between environmental stress and conflict is now well documented. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) emphasises that the effects of global warming are likely to intensify conflicts over natural resources in Africa. The Sahel experiences prolonged droughts, unpredictable rainfall and rapid land degradation, leading to displacement, inter-community tensions and a loss of trust in state structures.

In Mali, conflicts between Fulani herders and Dogon farmers are often perceived through ethnic or religious prisms, but they have deep ecological roots. These clashes stem from access to resources: transhumance routes are disrupted by droughts, leading to territorial conflicts. Media coverage, which is sometimes sensationalist or biased, can fuel divisions rather than calm them. The loss of trust in state governance, given the difficulty of states to provide effective responses to environmental crises (equitable distribution of water, support for resilient agriculture), leads to a delegitimisation of institutions. This creates a vacuum that can be exploited by armed groups or alternative forms of governance, sometimes based on community or religious structures.

The media as catalysts or stabilisers

The media can play a stabilising role or, conversely, fuel conflict depending on how information is produced and disseminated. In areas with weak state structures, community radio is often the only reliable source of information. At the same time, social media have become tools for mobilisation and, in some cases, disinformation.

The media also play an ambivalent role: they can contribute to social cohesion, environmental awareness and the dissemination of reliable information. But they can also amplify divisions through sensationalist or biased narratives.

Positive example: Community radio stations in Burkina Faso, such as Radio La Voix du Paysan, Radio Salaki and Radio Bama, have served as educational outlets for sustainable agricultural practices, while also easing local tensions.

Negative example: During outbreaks of violence in Niger, rumours spread on WhatsApp sparked violent reactions against communities perceived as ‘close’ to enemies or ‘favoured’ by the state.

Digital platforms have become battlegrounds for political and environmental narratives. Some foreign powers and extremist groups exploit climate and economic frustrations to sway public opinion, often through targeted disinformation campaigns.

However, many media projects have shown how appropriate communication can strengthen local resilience. On the other hand, digital campaigns – sometimes orchestrated by foreign powers – exploit frustrations linked to the ecological and economic crisis to strengthen or weaken other geopolitical influences.

Blind spots in strategic responses

International interventions often suffer from a lack of coordination: A lack of coordination between humanitarian, military and environmental actors leads to inconsistencies. The impact of a development programme can be undermined by a security operation that is poorly contextualised or perceived as intrusive.

While an aid programme supports resilient agriculture in a village, a military operation is conducted a few kilometres away, with no link between the two. This can undermine community trust and the effectiveness of actions.

Taking into account informal dynamics – rumours, local narratives, traditional authority figures – is essential to avoid misunderstandings and consolidate peace.

Our fieldwork has taught us that the strategy must include not only governments but also hybrid forms of governance.

Towards a media-based climate security strategy

An integrated response requires a strategy that takes into account the media, climate and social dynamics. This involves strengthening community media as early warning systems (e.g. rural radio in times of crisis); cross-referencing climate data and social tension signals to detect emerging crisis hotspots; analysing competing narratives disseminated by state and non-state actors (armed groups, foreign powers); and observing alternative forms of governance, particularly where the state is weak or absent.

Local media (rural radio stations, local WhatsApp groups, etc.) can become early warning tools in the event of climate stress, imminent conflict or forced migration. To this end, investment is needed to professionalise these media, ensure their financial autonomy and protect them from censorship or threats.

Cross-referencing climate data (temperature, precipitation, drought) with social data (community tensions, population displacement, food prices) makes it possible to anticipate crises. Local observatories can be trained to report these weak signals in order to guide government responses.

This involves analysing how information is produced, by whom, for which audiences, and with what effects. This narrative mapping helps to understand alliances and power strategies, but also to identify narratives that promote peace and resilience.

West Africa is an epicentre of systemic climate-related vulnerabilities. But this vulnerability can be transformed into strength if we take to heart:

• The strategic role of the media as tools for resilience;

• The value of endogenous knowledge and narratives;

• The involvement of local communities in governance mechanisms.

An intersectional approach between the environment, media and local politics is now essential.

Climate change is not just an ecological issue: it is a multiplier of political, social and security risks. But it is also an opportunity to renew modes of governance, promote endogenous narratives and support local actors of change. When used effectively, the media can play a decisive role in this transformation.